Hi! A friend showed me the discussion that's currently going on here and I wanna chime in because it's a topic I've had a lot of thoughts on! I absolutely adore VS/CAI and a powerhouse ENG vb made for the english speaking audience on mind to help introduce more people from the west to VS is something I really wanted to see!
There were definitely circumstances that weren't working in Selena's favor and I think there were certain marketing choices that didn't help her case either. I will specifically be talking about success among english speaking fans and fandom producers, I am not qualified to speak on the "professional" market and that blatantly doesn't appear to be Selena's target audience, however, it can't go unstated that VS not having any western non-fandom/professional audience hurt a lot too.
- VS/CAI doesn't have nearly as strong fandom presence:
People are already comfortable with and used to the current options, the platform's endeavors to expand outside of the japanese sphere are very recent, the market is already very saturated as is.
I think this was the biggest hindrance in Selena's case, I believe it is possible to break the ice and for VS/CAI to gain bigger presence among western fans, however, I believe there were shortcomings Selena had and mistakes that were done with Selena:
- Doesn't commit to her theme:
She doesn't play into the alien theme, in both design and marketing, the only places where it is explored are her bio and 2 stickers, she's very comparable to Avanna who has completely different concept.
Hindsight is 20/20 but it is a very charming theme that has proven to have a big potential among fans judging by how adored Glorpi Miku, and Gnarpane Teto on a smaller scale, got.
It is true that Miku and Teto are already popular characters in of themselves, but still, I imagine not making it as blatant as the 2 above examples didn't help her case.
A character design may be pretty but that doesn't mean it's appropriate for every medium, a really strong comic book character design may be a bad character design for animation, although not nearly as strict, I definitely think there are characteristics that help a vsynth thrive in a fandom space:
Simplicity or easy to translate into simple design, it's not just about fanart, a creator may need to draw a character a lot or 3D model for various vsynth-related content, this is a multi-medium community so the design needs to be very flexible.
Selena has a lot of complex and/or hard to draw elements in her design ( a lot of patterns, ruffles, zippers, different fabrics ) and big shortcoming of hers is that her most characteristic elements are also the most complex ( like her crown(?) ). It is also hard to imagine/draw her in movement.
I think she has elements that make her difficult in 3D too but I have dabbled in that medium briefly so I don't want to be talking out of my arse.
A good characteristic to have is adaptability, observable pattern and elements and/or themes on the design that are easy to "reimagine" for other characters, think cryptonloids and macloids, it is true that it's easier to observe a pattern on a unit but that doesn't have to be the case, Teto SV is not part of any group/unit but her SV design is very easy to re-imagine on other characters and people do!
- Didn't utilize Oktavia in the marketing enough
Oktavia's YT Channel has the biggest reach out of any of the parties involved and I don't think it was fully used to it's advantage. She did make YT posts, they don't have the reach her videos do, neither do her tweets, she made promotional video, that being the exclusive video on Selena on her channel is a big mistake imo. It's the worst performing video of hers for a reason.
People don't know what Selena or Voisona are, it's obviously not a song cover at 1st glance, if someone clicks on it they hear Oktavia basically reading an ad, naturally, they click off.
A proper song/cover featuring Selena should've been uploaded to her channel. I think a duet between Selena and Oktavia would've been very lovely.
Even though getting people invested and using your product alone is really hard, once you get around to using it, there are some issues from user friendliness standpoint with Selena that don't make her very good entry point VS vb sadly.